long thread:
this trend seems to be playing out all over the world:
reported covid deaths are up but all other respiratory illness deaths are way down. flu has essentially disappeared.
this is leading to all cause death levels that look normal for this time of year.
this trend seems to be playing out all over the world:
reported covid deaths are up but all other respiratory illness deaths are way down. flu has essentially disappeared.
this is leading to all cause death levels that look normal for this time of year.
you can see that here.
and in sweden
this leads to some interesting questions about what could cause such a phenomenon
i see two plausible possibilities:
1. deaths have been reclassified from one bucket into another
2. we're seeing one disease crowd out/inoculate another
this leads to some interesting questions about what could cause such a phenomenon
i see two plausible possibilities:
1. deaths have been reclassified from one bucket into another
2. we're seeing one disease crowd out/inoculate another
if it's simply misclassification, then we're just seeing flu deaths as normal and calling them covid by using over sensitive PCR testing and granting "death by covid" definitional dominance.
this is certainly plausible given what we know about PCR.
this is certainly plausible given what we know about PCR.
and such things have happened before. the UK got sucked into what amounted to a false second wave of h1n1 in precisely this manner.
and we're defining deaths "with" covid as a dominant category all over the world so this would be easy to manifest.
and we're defining deaths "with" covid as a dominant category all over the world so this would be easy to manifest.
a possible confound to this idea of misclassification is that flu tests are being performed in large numbers but coming back with bizarrely low positive rates.
it's ~1/20th of normal (0.15% vs 3.97%)
that's a very wide variance to have be chance.
(CDC data from @kerpen )
it's ~1/20th of normal (0.15% vs 3.97%)
that's a very wide variance to have be chance.
(CDC data from @kerpen )
either these flu tests are being given to a really historically odd population (unlikely), this year's flu test simply does not work for some reason (have not seen evidence of this), or we're seeing something rare and surprising: covid has prevented the flu.
this sounds bizarre at first pass, but there has been some speculation about and evidence of such things in the past.
responses in epithelial tissues, preferential receptor binding, high levels of immune activation etc might be able to do this.
responses in epithelial tissues, preferential receptor binding, high levels of immune activation etc might be able to do this.
Interference between rhinovirus and influenza A virus: a clinical data analysis and experimental infection studyThese findings show that one respiratory virus can block infection with another through stimulation of antiviral defences in the airway mucosa, supporting the idea that interference from rhinovirus di…https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(20)30114-2/fulltext?s=09#%20
it looks like rhinovirus may have done this before.
if this is indeed going on, it has a number of interesting implications.
if covid crowds out flu and all cause deaths look normal, then covid is about as deadly as flu. this has been looking increasingly like the case anyway.
if this is indeed going on, it has a number of interesting implications.
if covid crowds out flu and all cause deaths look normal, then covid is about as deadly as flu. this has been looking increasingly like the case anyway.
this dovetails with the "dry tinder" theory.
in many places, the 2018-19 flu season (and the early 19-20) were extremely mild and caused few deaths. lots of people outlived actuarial life expectancies.
they presented a highly vulnerable cohort for cov.
in many places, the 2018-19 flu season (and the early 19-20) were extremely mild and caused few deaths. lots of people outlived actuarial life expectancies.
they presented a highly vulnerable cohort for cov.
this led to what looked like high CFR/IFR if one does not adjust for age. but it may not have been a uniquely dangerous virus, but rather a larger than usual high risk population.
this seems consistent with the high ages of deaths, flu like or lower death rates in the young etc
this seems consistent with the high ages of deaths, flu like or lower death rates in the young etc
it also lines up with the high presence of serious co-morbidities in such deaths.
covid went after the high risk.
but as this high risk cohort is now depleted, we're seeing covid CFR and IFR drop and start to look like a pretty normal flu
it's much lower now than spring
covid went after the high risk.
but as this high risk cohort is now depleted, we're seeing covid CFR and IFR drop and start to look like a pretty normal flu
it's much lower now than spring
if covid has displaced flu and basically "cured" it by preventing it from being able to infect us and all cause deaths are normal, then in great irony for many of the "just the flu, bro" accusers, covid has literally become, just the flu.
bro.
bro.
but this thesis is not without confounds as well. for covid to have eradicated flu this thoroughly, it would need to be absolutely endemic
it would have to be incredibly widespread in the population. it cannot be inoculating/protecting you if you do not have it have not had it
it would have to be incredibly widespread in the population. it cannot be inoculating/protecting you if you do not have it have not had it
consider what that means: if covid is that widespread, then all these attempts at mitigation are pointless.
we're trying to close the barn door on a horse that's already in the next county and still picking up speed.
we're trying to close the barn door on a horse that's already in the next county and still picking up speed.
if covid is widespread enough to be suppressing flu all over the world, then no lockdown or distancing or masking is going to accomplish anything even if such things did work (and the evidence is overwhelming that they don't).
it would also mean that a vaccine is way too late.
it would also mean that a vaccine is way too late.
the only other explanation that seems to fit these facts is a really wild coincidence that there was just no flu this year or an incredibly mild one and that covid just happens to be killing about the same number of people that flu would.
this seems awfully implausible.
this seems awfully implausible.
so we're left with either:
"covid is mostly over and being mis-identified in preference to seasonal flu"
or
"covid is so endemic that it has displaced and prevented seasonal flu all over the world."
neither seems like it needs to be or even could be addressed by NPI's.
"covid is mostly over and being mis-identified in preference to seasonal flu"
or
"covid is so endemic that it has displaced and prevented seasonal flu all over the world."
neither seems like it needs to be or even could be addressed by NPI's.
this would seem to imply that this latest round of masks and lockdowns is the very definition of needless self harm and that we really need to knock it off before we do any more damage.
i'm just not seeing another interpretation.
i'm just not seeing another interpretation.
it's worth noting that these two explanations are not mutually exclusive and that both could be going on in concert and that we're really just trying to determine to what degree each is having effect.
i don't think we can rule either out at this point.
i don't think we can rule either out at this point.
i'm curious to hear if anyone has a third possible explanation that fits the fact pattern of:
normal all cause deaths
very low deaths from typical seasonal RTI's
rising reported covid deaths at near perfect offset
almost complete disappearance of seasonal flu
thoughts?
normal all cause deaths
very low deaths from typical seasonal RTI's
rising reported covid deaths at near perfect offset
almost complete disappearance of seasonal flu
thoughts?
also: as it seems to be coming up already, i just want to add that the theory that "masks and distancing stopped flu" does not seem to hold water in the face of covid spread.
the idea that it works on all RTI's except covid seems impossible, esp with cov providing such precise offset to typical flu deaths.
this seems like an exercise in selective reasoning
this seems like an exercise in selective reasoning
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impactful one because they are a minor is fundamentally inconsistent. are they to be trusted or not?
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