Friday, October 30, 2020

But What Did the Metrics Say to Do - Lose?

We've been hearing a lot about the metrics in sports.

Like many initially successful trends, people have gone completely off the rails since the good old days of Bill James metrics. Because nobody knows how to hold back anymore, and everybody's feet are pounding on the gas pedal, the metrics clowns who run the Tampa Bay Rays decided to let a spreadsheet and an algorithm cost them the World Series 

This is genuinely funny. 

Blake Snell is a mid 90s throwing left handed strikeout artist. He hadn't even gone six innings but had struck out nine. The guy was out there dealing. What did the Tampa Bay Rays management do? They decided to pull Snell from the game.

The reason why this is completely ridiculous is because the metrics people are always talking about how traditional baseball traditional rules and traditional stats aren't worth anything. All they ever talk about are the metrics. Now the metrics cost them the World Series. What they should have done was simply watched the game in front of them realized they had a modern day Sandy Koufax out there and let him pitch a complete game - mowing guys down, striking out twelve during a 130 pitch complete game world series win.

But no. 

As usual the metrics said to take Snell out and let a reliever come in, and that would give them the best chance of winning the game. Despite the fact that all you needed was a pair of eyes to see what was going on, you could have changed the course of the franchise and let what was going on in front of you dictate how to handle game seven of the World Series. Instead, they let an algorithm control what they were doing and could not deviate from the spreadsheet, and the metrics, which are supposedly the most amazing tool to win games. 

The Moneyball guys realized that in a short series the metrics were pretty much useless. We've known this since Moneyball came out over 15 years ago. Bill James, the godfather of metrics, had a lot of common sense in him and explained to everybody that the metrics worked out better and worked well in a long season. The Rays showed this in their season winning many more games with a roster of names nobody knows. Not only did they win the the American League they destroyed the rest of the division. They even soundly beat the monster payroll New York Yankees.

So here is a case of people not being able to see the forest from the trees. They have a young left handed pitcher striking out guys like crazy at the height of his powers and they pull him out of the game. That is completely unforgivable and a lesson to everybody out there to not completely adhere to something especially when you see with your own eyes what's going on. The Rays learned a very harsh lesson by being slaves to the metrics. Sometimes you need a little bit of flexibility an the wherewithal and depth of thought to look at some of the traditional ways of doing things from the old days.

The metrics guys are always laughing at people who look at traditional stats like "wins".  Well, when they needed a "win", instead of going for it, they went for the metrics. Why focus on silly things like 'wins' when you can drool over BABIP??!!

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